Superb snow

Our regularly updated blog discusses the weather prospects for the major winter sports regions. Like incomprehensible jargon and meteorological babble? Then you've come to the wrong place!

New snow charts and ensemble forecasts

Posted Sat, 19 Dec 2015 14:44:49

The weather in the Alps is mild and dry at the moment and more snow would be very welcome. Can we expect ore soon? You can check the 16 day forecasts available from the top of the page to get a quick view but if you’d like to dig a little deeper take a look at the new forecast charts.

The GFS forecast charts page is the first port of call. Here you can view a range of charts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) for Europe, North America and Japan. For the European region the new ‘Alps snow’ chart is probably the first one to look at. By stepping forward through the charts you’ll be able to see bands of rain moving in and hopefully turning to snow as they hit the Alps! On the charts blue shading shows rain and white to pink is snow.

06_57_preciptype_alps

The GFS model gives one possible outcome but as many of you know weather forecasts can be wrong. This is where the GEFS ensemble charts help because they show the same computer model run a number of different times with the starting conditions slightly varied. This helps account for uncertainty and the idea is to look for consistency between the individual runs. If most of the runs for a selected time show snow as the outcome then confidence is high in this being correct. At the moment only snowfall forecasts for Europe are available on the GEFS page but through the season more options will be added in.

snow_60_ps_slp_alps

Summary

The GFS and GEFS features will be further developed in the coming weeks and already they provide a fantastic tool which can be used to assess the likelihood of snow. The GFS and GEFS charts are both fully updated every 6 hours and when you load the page charts from the latest computer model runs are displayed.

GFS charts

GEFS charts

 

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Previous Superb Snow

High pressure over Europe
Snow, snow and more snow
Blowtorch air mass in the Alps
Snow conditions get better
More snow for the Alps
Alpine snow drought is ending
Transformation soon in the Alps?
It’s mild out there!
New snow charts and ensemble forecasts
Hairdryer blowing in the Alps

Forecasts

16 day

Deterministic forecast updated 4 times every day. The quickest and easiest way to view a snapshot of the expected weather.

Probability

Up to 16 days ahead these use data from the GEFS ensemble forecasting system. Not resort specific but a fantastic tool for judging confidence levels and seeing the possible temperature and precipitation spreads.

LRF

The long range forecast updated daily is intended to give an indication of possible regional trends.

Weather charts

Like more detailed information? Check out the latest weather forecast charts for winter sports regions in Europe, North America and Japan. Updated every 6 hours, include guidance on freezing levels and expected snow fall.

Latest charts